Universal COVID-19 Vaccination Could Prevent Thousands of Additional Deaths, Study Reveals

 

New research analysis emphasizes significant advantages of maintaining universal COVID-19 vaccination recommendations as health officials debate restricting eligibility to high-risk populations only.

The comprehensive study, published Thursday in JAMA Network Open, examines projection models from nine research teams demonstrating that broad vaccination policies could prevent thousands more deaths compared to targeted approaches focusing solely on vulnerable groups.

This analysis emerges as the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices convened this week to discuss updated vaccination guidance. The FDA has already implemented substantial changes, restricting approval to adults 65 and older plus younger individuals at elevated risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Modeling Hub Provides Critical Insights

The US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has delivered nearly 20 projection rounds over five years, estimating disease burden across various scenarios. Research teams construct models using distinct assumption sets, creating ensemble projections for six scenarios based on different vaccination recommendations and viral immune escape factors.

These projections previously informed expansion of primary COVID-19 vaccination schedules to school-age children in 2021 and booster recommendations during fall 2022, demonstrating their practical policy applications.

Models covering April 2024 through April 2025 examined scenarios ranging from no vaccine recommendations with high immune escape to universal recommendations with low immune escape. The scenario most closely resembling actual conditions involved high immune escape with universal vaccination recommendations.

Substantial Benefits of Universal Approach

Universal vaccination recommendations were projected to reduce hospitalizations by 11 percent and deaths by 13 percent, essentially preventing 104,000 hospitalizations and 9,000 deaths during the study period.

High-risk focused recommendations would still provide substantial benefits: 8 percent hospitalization reduction and 10 percent death reduction. However, expanded recommendations for all ages were projected to prevent an additional 28,000 hospitalizations and 2,000 deaths beyond targeted approaches.

Adults 65 and older benefit most under all vaccination scenarios through direct and indirect effects. Universal recommendations would reduce COVID-19 burden on seniors by an additional 3-4 percent, preventing approximately 11,000 hospitalizations and 1,000 deaths in this demographic.

“This finding suggests substantial indirect benefits of universal vaccination and the continued value of broad vaccine recommendations,” researchers concluded.

Current Season Projections

Similar patterns emerge in projections for the current season, published by the Scenario Modeling Hub in June. Recommending updated vaccines only for high-risk populations would prevent an estimated 90,000 hospitalizations and 7,000 deaths.

Broadening recommendations to include all Americans would save an additional 1,000 lives and prevent 26,000 more hospitalizations, according to the analysis.

“We expect continued substantial burden of disease from COVID-19 in the US,” researchers wrote. “All vaccination strategies are projected to significantly reduce disease burden. The greatest benefits will be seen if vaccines are offered to all ages.”

Policy Implementation Challenges

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted Friday requiring people seeking COVID-19 vaccines to consult healthcare providers first, though they rejected prescription requirements. This represents a shift from previous universal recommendation policies.

Dr. Justin Lessler, modeling hub leader and University of North Carolina epidemiology professor, confirmed that modeling work was not presented at ACIP’s June meeting and shows no indication of presentation at current meetings.

“We continue to share our results with the CDC and are working to make them more easily available to a broader range of organizations providing vaccine guidance,” Lessler stated.

Validation and Accuracy

Previous projections demonstrated robust accuracy when compared to actual epidemiological trends. While burden patterns differed from initial assumptions—greater summer impact, lesser winter impact—projected deaths aligned closely with models, building researcher confidence in projection reliability.

The research emphasizes that while targeting highest-risk individuals remains effective, universal vaccination maintains potential for saving thousands of additional lives through both direct protection and indirect community benefits.

All Scenario Modeling Hub work remains publicly available for consideration by ACIP and other public health experts, supporting evidence-based policy development as COVID-19 continues circulating in communities nationwide.