Just a month ago, there was a brief sense of optimism as Israelis and Palestinians witnessed a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. It seemed like a step toward ending months of intense conflict. However, as the ceasefire’s expiration date approaches, that hope is fading, and Israel appears to be preparing for a return to war.
The 42-day truce between Israel and Hamas is set to expire this weekend unless an extension is agreed upon. Initially, talks for a permanent resolution were scheduled for early February, but weeks have passed without progress. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing pressure from his far-right coalition members, is signaling a readiness to resume military operations.
“We are prepared to return to full-scale combat at any moment,” Netanyahu stated while addressing military officers. His government has taken strategic steps that suggest a shift away from negotiations. Instead of sending a team to Qatar or Egypt to mediate an extension, Netanyahu traveled to Washington, D.C., to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. He also replaced Israel’s security chiefs, who had led previous ceasefire talks, with Ron Dermer, a close political ally known for his strong ties to the Trump administration.
During previous negotiations, Netanyahu had already shown skepticism about the ceasefire’s long-term potential. For him, the first phase was simply a means to secure the release of hostages without committing to a broader resolution. Now, the next phase of negotiations, which would involve a permanent end to hostilities, the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, remains uncertain.
Pressure to Resume War
Far-right members of Netanyahu’s cabinet are pushing for immediate military action. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to withdraw from the government if Israel does not restart military operations after the ceasefire ends. Meanwhile, Itamar Ben Gvir, a vocal opponent of the truce, has already resigned from his role as national security minister in protest.
Netanyahu is attempting to extend the ceasefire under its current terms without making the difficult concessions required for a second phase. Israeli officials have indicated they are working to prolong the first phase “as much as possible” to secure more hostage releases. However, Hamas may not agree to continue releasing hostages without firm commitments from Israel to end the war.
U.S. Influence and Uncertain Diplomacy
Although Trump has taken credit for brokering the ceasefire, his recent statements have not promoted peace. He has suggested forcibly relocating Palestinians from Gaza and expressed doubt about the ceasefire’s longevity. “We will see whether or not it holds,” he remarked earlier this month.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit the region to attempt to salvage the ceasefire, though he has acknowledged the difficulty of reaching a long-term agreement.
Hostage Exchanges and Rising Tensions
The situation further escalated when Israel’s cabinet decided not to release 620 Palestinian prisoners, despite Hamas fulfilling its part of the hostage exchange by releasing six Israeli captives. Hamas condemned Israel’s decision as a “blatant violation” of the agreement.
As the deadline nears, the future of the ceasefire remains uncertain. Whether Hamas sees enough value in continued hostage releases or whether international pressure compels Israel into meaningful negotiations will determine the outcome. For the two million Palestinians struggling to survive in Gaza and the 63 hostages still held by Hamas, the stakes could not be higher.
